Research: England Euros success could cause further house price boom (Yes, really)

Football Affecting House Prices.... Really?

From the number-crunching we've done, there is a definite link between how the England football team does in major tournaments, and how the housing market performs afterwards - particularly with the Euros. The better we do in these tournaments, the more house prices grow afterwards. And the worse we do, the worse the market tends to do.

A few examples…

• Go back to 1996 when we reached the semis – house prices spiked 9% after that.
• When we only managed the Quarters in 2004 and 2012, prices didn’t go up quite so much – but still a solid 4.5%.
• In 2008… You’ll remember we didn’t even qualify. And we all know what happened to the market after that… It dropped about 12%.

So there definitely seems to be a link between how we do in the major championships – especially the Euros, and how the property market performs afterwards.

The Facts

So here are the facts. Data comes from Uefa and Gov.UK's House Price Index.

Failure to qualify

England has already overcome the first hurdle of qualification and the research shows we could have avoided a potential house price dip as a result. The data shows that the only time they have failed to qualify for the Euros since 1992 was in 2008 and over the following 12 months, house prices plunged -12%.

Group stages or last 16

Since the Euros in Sweden in 1992, England has failed to progress from the group stages on two occasions, 92 itself and 2000. Over the next year, house price growth following these disappointing performances averaged just 4%, as was also the case when England could only reach the last 16 in France in 2016. A similar performance this time around would be even more disappointing considering the expectations around the current team, but it could at least boost the average house price to £285,600.

A quarter-final

It’s the business end of the tournament when things start to get potentially interesting for England’s homeowners. Having reached the quarter-finals in Portugal in 2004 and Poland and Ukraine in 2012, house prices in England increased at an average rate of 4.5% over the following year. A similar result this time around could see the average house price in England climb to £286,973 over the next year.

A semi-final

However, if England can replicate their performance at the World Cup and reach the semi-finals of this year’s Euros, the housing market boom could be set to continue for another year. In the year that followed the legendary Euro 96 tournament hosted in England, house prices spiked by 9%. A similar result this year could see an already giddy average house price of £274,615 climb as high as £299,331.

How can football affect house prices?

Matthew Cooper, Founder & Managing Director of Yes Homebuyers, commented:

"We’re a football supporting nation, it puts a spring in our step when the team do well. And we know that the economy is based on sentiment – we see it time and time again with things like consumer spending. When people feel good, when they feel optimistic, they spend more.

It’s the same with the housing market – a lot of it is about sentiment, and that “feel good factor” we get from a great tournament might be having an impact on our housing market.

We’re just looking at the data, and the data’s telling us that it seems to help."

Isn't it just a coincidence?

Well... Is the link a little tenuous? Maybe, in some places.

In 2008, did the credit crunch have more of an impact on house prices than the England football team did? Probably!  

But whether you can argue it’s all coincidence or not, you can’t argue that this connection’s there. As a country we love property and we love football. And then we look at the data and it tells us that when one does well, the other does too!

So what happens next with house prices? 

We’ve already seen house prices climb at an alarming rate as a result of the stamp duty holiday and with the staggered deadlines fast approaching, a dip in market activity and property values is more than likely towards the back end of this year.

At some point, the massive market backlogs could catch up as well, especially if people decide to put off moving altogether because of the huge wait times. (Note: If you're trying to sell but want to skip the market backlogs, our "sell my house fast" service could be the perfect option for you)

So all in all, it seems as though the only thing that can prevent this property market slump and keep the property market booming is for Southgate to guide the team to a semi-final. God only knows what might happen to house prices if we reach the final, or better yet, win the Euros.